Pacquiao May be too much for Mayweather

Not only do I think Manny Pacquiao would be the favorite in a fight with Floyd Mayweather, I think he would win with ease. Mayweather (40-0 25 KO's) is known for his tight defense, speed and accurate punching. However, he lacks the power it takes to hurt the Filipino champion. He would dance and dance around the ring avoiding Pacquiao, which would create too much space for those lightning quick jabs to connect. I just don't see Mayweather hurting Pacquiao, I see him staying away and only winning off numbers.

It would be a truly ridiculous payday for both fighters, but who would get the higher percentage? Would the two fighters agree on a 50/50 split? Pac probably would settle only to get the fight and complete his legacy, despite the fact he is the biggest name in the sport. Mayweather, whose life is centered around being paid, would flaunt his record and likely demand a higher percentage. It would be the biggest fight in years and a match up boxing needs. There is no heavyweight fighters worth waiting for, so Pacquaio/Mayweather becomes the biggest fight the boxing world can offer.

Pacquiao, like Mayweather a couple years ago, has become the fighter fans pay to see regardless of the opponent. He is Tiger, LeBron and Federer. He is the main event and the face of the sport. Sorry Floyd. He has taken on the best available opponents and dominated. He continues to stay active as a social figure, which is something no other fighter can say. He is the ray of hope in a sport that struggles to stay afloat (unintentional rhyme). How much do you think this fight will go for? How much would you be willing to pay? Is a hundred bucks to see the best fight since Tyson/Lewis too much to ask? I bet you would still pay it.

But, would Mayweather be able to compete? He is truly gifted, has ALWAYS backed up his claims and done so with a smoothness boxing fans hadn't seen since Ali and Sugar. But would he dare go inside on Pac? Would the fight be anything more than a "Catch me if you can". Peppering Pac with jabs won't win the fight, let alone hurt Pacquiao. I wonder if Mayweather wants to risk all he has accomplished and potentially retire on a loss.

Pacquiao has become an iconic figure in sports. Mayweather is an iconic figure in boxing. I think both are more than capable of beating the other, however I find it hard to see Mayweather getting into the kind of shape it would take to pull this one off. Pacquiao is no Marquez. This is not going to be a small, light opponent jumping up weight divisions to provide Mayweather a "let's get the rust off" fight. I hope this fight happens sometime next year. I hope it lives up to the potential greatness the boxing community has projected. But I will not be surprised if Mayweather decides against the fight, passes on the money and keeps his flawless record. I think Pacquiao has already won the fight.

Quick Thoughts

Manny Pacquaio dominated 9 of the 12 rounds in last Saturday's WBO Welterweight title fight against Miguel Cotto. Despite the Puerto Rican champion looking bigger, Cotto was unable to break through the furious pace Pacquaio set. The fight was over for all intensive purposes after Cotto was knocked down in both the third and fourth rounds, with the punch in the 4th being particularly impressive. When it was all said and done, Cotto was puffy, cut up and displaying two nearly shut eyes. Pacquaio smiled throughout the fight and spoke afterwards of the inevitable bout between himself and Floyd Mayweather.

Allen Iverson, after only three games with the Memphis Grizzles, has parted ways with the young team and was waived Tuesday night (he is eligible to join another teams 48 hours after). With the poor start and lack of a true leader, the New York Knicks have emerged as a likely suitor for The Answer. In the past, teams have made arrangements with Iverson that allowed him to miss practices to keep himself energized for game day. Iverson has never been one to not give his all in games, but if he is to join the Knicks, a team that needs all sorts of practice, he is going to have to anticipate being present. Chris Duhon hasn't been the floor general he was last season and Iverson may be a spark for the struggling team. Who knows how he will get along with Mike D'Antoni, a players coach, whose biggest struggle has been his players hogging the ball and forcing low percentage jumpers (ie: Al Harrington). Iverson, has always wanted to ball in his hands and probably would only add to the "me first" mentality the team already suffers from. But, he'd sell tickets. He would be a "star" player for the team to work around (as a potential preparation for the arrival of a 2010 free agent). The fact is, the presence of Iverson really can't make things any worse. It would give fans a reason to come out, because lately, there haven't been many.

Zack Greinke was awarded the AL Cy Young yesterday. Greinke played for a last place team and won only 16 games. However, he was absolutely filthy in the first 5 months of the season. He finished second in the American League in strikeouts with 242 and was tops in the league in ERA with a minuscule 2.16 (the lowest since Pedro Martinez's insane 2000 season). He is young, confident and stuck on a crappy team. Kansas City finished with the lowest winning percentage (.401) of any team ever to have a Cy Young Winner.

Brandon Jennings, Ty Lawson and Tyreke Evans continue to emerge from the 2009 rookie class as the top three to watch for the ROY. Blake Griffin is still out and will likely change the conversation upon his return, but for now watching these three young, fast guards play big roles on their respective teams has been a joy for any NBA fan. Damn, the Knicks should have drafted Jennings and not Jordan "The Project" Hill. He dropped 55 last week and looked like the truth.

The NFL's most valuable player watch is becoming a three horse race between Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Brett Favre. I was aware of Manning and Brees's numbers and the quality of their teams so far this season. However, I wasn't giving the old man enough attention. He has only thrown THREE INTERCEPTIONS! This is Brett Favre were talking about. He also has the highest passer rating of any QB in the league and is an obvious reason Minnesota is 8-1. Favre would become the oldest player to win the league MVP, bumping 37-year old Rich Gannon (winner in 2002 with Raiders).

I CAN'T WAIT

Like so many mega-fights in the past, the MGM Grand will host what should be the fight of the year this weekend. Manny Pacquiao, pound-for-pound the best fighter in the world (and champion in six weight classes), will attempt to take the WBO welterweight title from a focused Miguel Cotto. Pacquiao ( 49-3-2, 37 KO's) is the huge favorite despite having to bulk up considerably to meet the required weight. It will be the heaviest class the Filipino legend has ever fought at, but anticipates no ill-effects to his tremendous speed and quickness. Cotto (34-1 27 KO's) is a year removed from receiving his first loss from Antonio Margarito and his plaster filled gloves. A fight he was dominating through the first six rounds. The controversal loss put a blemish on his record, but has sparked a desire to prove the experts, who give him little chance this weekend, wrong.

Pacquiao has experienced his usual circus-like training regiment. He surrounds himself with a massive entourage, eats a half dozen meals a day (each chased with a protein shake), talks at length with trainer Freddy Roach and is constantly being pulled in different directions for various out-of-the-ring endevors. He is the most famous face in his country and tries to do as much as he can everyday for his people. He says after boxing he will run for office. He is on commercials, the radio and recording music. When he is in the ring he gives every ounce of energy, but sometimes Roach has to remind his fighter what his priorities are. His training is intense and routine. His conditioning has also been strenuous because of the need to add weight. He takes in approximately 7000 calories a day, but is burning 500 more. Roach and conditioning coach Alex Ariza have fine tuned Pacquaio attempting to balance the new weight with muscle tone. Pac Man will have to trust his speed and instincts against the larger Cotto and hope he can avoid his opponent's power punches. It seems few people are giving Cotto a chance, he shouldn't be overlooked. He should be undefeated and wants to remind the boxing community what he is capable of.

If Cotto is defeated he gives up his belt and falls down the welterweight totem pole. If Pacquiao falls, he has six titles to fall back on. Cotto has a BIIIIIIIIG chip on his shoulder from the Margarito fight and understand he has the stage Saturday night to remove it. Cotto is fighting at his desired size against a quicker, but smaller opponent. Cotto has been deemed the underdog, which on its own provides a fighter motivation. He has trained exclusively with southpaw sparring partners in anticipation for the left-handed Pacquiao. He claims he has seen everything Pac has to offer either in the ring or on video. Cotto is focused and looks pissed off. Pac Man never stops smiling, filming commercials and joking. However, Cotto also knows his opponent can end the fight in a single round.

I like Cotto.

I like Pacquaio too.

I'd be surprised if Cotto is knocked out. I see both fighters being potentially knocked down.

Part of me expects Pacquiao to win a close decision in what should be a classic fight. However, a growing part feels like Cotto is in the perfect position to pull off an upset and hush the naysayers.

I don't know who to pick.

Cotto.

Early NBA Thoughts

I get excited when the start of all the major sports seasons (minus hockey) arrives. The New York Giants come to Albany and train for the start of the NFL season only 10 minutes up the road. You can't help but feel the buzz in the 518! The baseball fan in me can't wait till pitchers and catchers report as April approaches. However, only the NBA makes me truly antsy for the start of the season. This is because, despite being a New York Knicks fan, I appreciate quite a few teams, coaches and players from around the L.

With the NBA season only a handful games deep, I can already see a few trends, under-the-radar players and standout rookies we should all keep an eye on. You gotta love the NBA League Pass two week trial period!

The majority of attention for the new rookie classes tend to migrate toward the top selections who dominated in their college years. Players who are selected in the top three picks receive all the acclaim as potential difference makers in their first season. Well, Blake Griffin, who will be a force once healthy, is already injured. The Clippers (who I will speak about later) appeared to have a serious chance at competing with a young, energetic roster and the leadership of a point guard with a "I got a lot to prove this year" mentality. Unfortunately, it will be about six weeks until Griffin makes his NBA debut.

Hasheem Thabeet, James Harden and Ricky Rubio were the next three players selected, none of which I anticipate making a huge influence on their respective teams. Rubio will obviously be the least involved after choosing to play professionally in Spain for the next two years.

I do see Griffin playing a major role for the Clippers in 2009, but the delayed start may be enough to keep Los Angeles's other team from ever getting on the track to the post season.

The player I see providing the most influence to his new team is Ty Lawson, the 18th pick overall by the Denver Nuggets. Lawson was the X-factor on all those overpowering North Carolina teams Roy Williams and Tyler Hansbrough received all the props for. Lawson is lightning quick with the ball, possesses tremendous court vision and has the luxury of shadowing a true pro in Chauncey Billups. He stands only 6'1", but uses a stocky build (listed just under 200 lbs) to muscle his way through the paint. Lawson is not scared, he oozes confidence you don't see in typical rookies. It can't hurt he runs the floor with K-Mart, Melo and J.R. Smith, three guys not lacking swagger. Anticipate Lawson to average double digits in points, high percentages from both FG/FT and close to six assists a game all in under thirty minutes a night. Sometimes falling to the second half of the first round is a blessing in disguise.

Also keep an eye on Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings. These two came into the L with everyone knowing their strengths and weaknesses. Curry is silky smooth with his jumper. He looks like he can make it from anywhere; most players don't. He is skinny and will likely struggle to defend the stronger shooting guards in his first season, but on offense he is someone teams will have to be aware of. As far as Jennings, everyone who spoke about his potential out of Oak Hill knew he was a blur on the court with sixth sense-like court vision. He promised to break the McDonald's All-American game assists record (13) and would have if he wasn't pulled out of the game. He finished with nine dimes, all of which appeared completely effortless. Jennings chose to play one season in Italy rather than spend time at the University of Arizona and because of this didn't receive the national attention his peers did. Nevertheless, the 8th overall pick is now utilizing his speed, passing ability and style to make teams like my Knicks regret not selecting him.

With a new season comes a blank slate for all 32 teams, but which teams will make serious improvements over their 2008 results? I see Washington having a comeback season behind the return of Gilbert Arenas, the shooting of Mike Miller and the always solid Curon Butler. Once Antawn Jamison gets healthy and this team is at full strength there is no reason the Wizards can't be a top-6 team in the East.

Despite the future of Dwayne Wade in Miami being somewhat unclear, I see this team staying focused on a playoff run right now. Mario Chalmers continues to mature, Michael Beasley has all the talent (but lacks the maturity), veteran Udonis Haslem is always banging down low and head coach Erik Spoelstra appears to have a strong connection with his team.

Out west, I think the Houston Rockets can outperform their expectations after the loss of Yao Ming. Rick Adelman has instilled a defensive mindset into his team of tough players. Guys like Shane Battier, Carl Landry and Luis Scola will never be the offensive force Yao is, but they can stop teams inside and force opposing offenses to the perimeter. Also, keep an eye on young Aaron Brooks. He is an underrated point guard that I see working very well with Trevor Ariza. Don't be surprised if this team is fighting for a 6th-8th seed in late April.

I really liked the potential the Clippers had coming into this season as a young team no one saw coming. Their coach stinks and they live in the shadow of Kobe Bryant and the Lakers. Everyone already knows this. However, a rejuvenated Baron Davis, healthy Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman, developing Eric Gordon and Al Thornton, and the addition of a beast in Blake Griffin made the Clips kinda sexy. I'm not trying to say the season is a wash because the top pick will miss a few weeks. I do wonder if the Clippers will be able to adjust, maintain and not be ten games under .500 when he gets back on the court.

Keep an eye on the scoring Kevin Durant puts up this season. The Oklahoma front office is doing a good job adding quality players every year to surround KD. They have a very talented point in Russell Westbrook and a underrated inside/outside guy in Jeff Green. The additions of James Harden, Nenad Krstic and Thabo Sefolosha provide a foundation for this team to build on for many seasons. Oh, and expect KD to average upwards of 28 a game in 2009. Durantula!

Although there are a couple of teams that may surprise this season, as well as a handful of teams that will compete and lock up mid-level playoff positions, there are really only a half dozen teams I see competing for the chip. The Lakers, Spurs, Nuggets, Cavaliers, Celtics and Magic appear to be the top tier teams in the NBA. Once LeBron and Shaq get on the same page, assuming O'neal meshes, the Cavs will be right there. If Boston can stay healthy, the additions of Rasheed Wallace, Sheldon Williams and Marquis Daniels will maintain the Celtic dominance of the past few years. Plus, blossoming point guard Rajon Rando just inked a 5-year deal worth $55 million, which should keep him a happy celtic for years to come. Vince Carter has never been on a team with as many weapons as the Magic. This could be good or bad for a player like Carter who could either find his place and succeed or feel slighted over a lack of touches and become a cancer. As soft as Carter is and as much as he complains, you have to assume he sees the potential in his new home as his career approaches its conclusion. Out west, the Lakers front office went out and got Ron Artest in exchange for Trevor Ariza. Some people love this, others feel it was a mistake. Artest is past his prime, Ariza's is still coming. Kobe will be Kobe, which should be enough to get L.A. a top-2 seed no matter who else is on the court. Denver has a high octane offense, a coach that loves cough drops and a passive defensive mentality. With all that, 55 wins seems achievable. However, making it to the western conference finals for the second straight year may not be. Finally, the San Antonio Spurs have retooled and look to be ready for one final run for a chip under the Tim Duncan/Gregg Popovich reign. The addition of Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess, DeJuan Blair and the return of a healthy Manu Ginobili should be enough to challenge the Lakers for the top spot in the conference.

I wish I had a paragraph about my Knicks. However, they are yet to figure out how to play defense and everyone on the team thinks he is the star. Yes, we just knocked off New Orleans for our first win of the young season, but the Hornets aren't exactly the class of the west. Chris Paul is going to give the same every night and David West and Emeka Okafor will get theirs, but that is it. I'd like to say the Knicks could win 35 games this year, but even that might be a bit of a stretch. No interior defense, too many wild three point attempts and no true court leader have made the Knicks a team opponents look forward to playing. I don't like this one bit!

Be back with more NBA in a couple days.