With the NBA season only a handful games deep, I can already see a few trends, under-the-radar players and standout rookies we should all keep an eye on. You gotta love the NBA League Pass two week trial period!
The majority of attention for the new rookie classes tend to migrate toward the top selections who dominated in their college years. Players who are selected in the top three picks receive all the acclaim as potential difference makers in their first season. Well, Blake Griffin, who will be a force once healthy, is already injured. The Clippers (who I will speak about later) appeared to have a serious chance at competing with a young, energetic roster and the leadership of a point guard with a "I got a lot to prove this year" mentality. Unfortunately, it will be about six weeks until Griffin makes his NBA debut.
Hasheem Thabeet, James Harden and Ricky Rubio were the next three players selected, none of which I anticipate making a huge influence on their respective teams. Rubio will obviously be the least involved after choosing to play professionally in Spain for the next two years.
I do see Griffin playing a major role for the Clippers in 2009, but the delayed start may be enough to keep Los Angeles's other team from ever getting on the track to the post season.
The player I see providing the most influence to his new team is Ty Lawson, the 18th pick overall by the Denver Nuggets. Lawson was the X-factor on all those overpowering North Carolina teams Roy Williams and Tyler Hansbrough received all the props for. Lawson is lightning quick with the ball, possesses tremendous court vision and has the luxury of shadowing a true pro in Chauncey Billups. He stands only 6'1", but uses a stocky build (listed just under 200 lbs) to muscle his way through the paint. Lawson is not scared, he oozes confidence you don't see in typical rookies. It can't hurt he runs the floor with K-Mart, Melo and J.R. Smith, three guys not lacking swagger. Anticipate Lawson to average double digits in points, high percentages from both FG/FT and close to six assists a game all in under thirty minutes a night. Sometimes falling to the second half of the first round is a blessing in disguise.
Also keep an eye on Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings. These two came into the L with everyone knowing their strengths and weaknesses. Curry is silky smooth with his jumper. He looks like he can make it from anywhere; most players don't. He is skinny and will likely struggle to defend the stronger shooting guards in his first season, but on offense he is someone teams will have to be aware of. As far as Jennings, everyone who spoke about his potential out of Oak Hill knew he was a blur on the court with sixth sense-like court vision. He promised to break the McDonald's All-American game assists record (13) and would have if he wasn't pulled out of the game. He finished with nine dimes, all of which appeared completely effortless. Jennings chose to play one season in Italy rather than spend time at the University of Arizona and because of this didn't receive the national attention his peers did. Nevertheless, the 8th overall pick is now utilizing his speed, passing ability and style to make teams like my Knicks regret not selecting him.
With a new season comes a blank slate for all 32 teams, but which teams will make serious improvements over their 2008 results? I see Washington having a comeback season behind the return of Gilbert Arenas, the shooting of Mike Miller and the always solid Curon Butler. Once Antawn Jamison gets healthy and this team is at full strength there is no reason the Wizards can't be a top-6 team in the East.
Despite the future of Dwayne Wade in Miami being somewhat unclear, I see this team staying focused on a playoff run right now. Mario Chalmers continues to mature, Michael Beasley has all the talent (but lacks the maturity), veteran Udonis Haslem is always banging down low and head coach Erik Spoelstra appears to have a strong connection with his team.
Out west, I think the Houston Rockets can outperform their expectations after the loss of Yao Ming. Rick Adelman has instilled a defensive mindset into his team of tough players. Guys like Shane Battier, Carl Landry and Luis Scola will never be the offensive force Yao is, but they can stop teams inside and force opposing offenses to the perimeter. Also, keep an eye on young Aaron Brooks. He is an underrated point guard that I see working very well with Trevor Ariza. Don't be surprised if this team is fighting for a 6th-8th seed in late April.
I really liked the potential the Clippers had coming into this season as a young team no one saw coming. Their coach stinks and they live in the shadow of Kobe Bryant and the Lakers. Everyone already knows this. However, a rejuvenated Baron Davis, healthy Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman, developing Eric Gordon and Al Thornton, and the addition of a beast in Blake Griffin made the Clips kinda sexy. I'm not trying to say the season is a wash because the top pick will miss a few weeks. I do wonder if the Clippers will be able to adjust, maintain and not be ten games under .500 when he gets back on the court.
Keep an eye on the scoring Kevin Durant puts up this season. The Oklahoma front office is doing a good job adding quality players every year to surround KD. They have a very talented point in Russell Westbrook and a underrated inside/outside guy in Jeff Green. The additions of James Harden, Nenad Krstic and Thabo Sefolosha provide a foundation for this team to build on for many seasons. Oh, and expect KD to average upwards of 28 a game in 2009. Durantula!
Although there are a couple of teams that may surprise this season, as well as a handful of teams that will compete and lock up mid-level playoff positions, there are really only a half dozen teams I see competing for the chip. The Lakers, Spurs, Nuggets, Cavaliers, Celtics and Magic appear to be the top tier teams in the NBA. Once LeBron and Shaq get on the same page, assuming O'neal meshes, the Cavs will be right there. If Boston can stay healthy, the additions of Rasheed Wallace, Sheldon Williams and Marquis Daniels will maintain the Celtic dominance of the past few years. Plus, blossoming point guard Rajon Rando just inked a 5-year deal worth $55 million, which should keep him a happy celtic for years to come. Vince Carter has never been on a team with as many weapons as the Magic. This could be good or bad for a player like Carter who could either find his place and succeed or feel slighted over a lack of touches and become a cancer. As soft as Carter is and as much as he complains, you have to assume he sees the potential in his new home as his career approaches its conclusion. Out west, the Lakers front office went out and got Ron Artest in exchange for Trevor Ariza. Some people love this, others feel it was a mistake. Artest is past his prime, Ariza's is still coming. Kobe will be Kobe, which should be enough to get L.A. a top-2 seed no matter who else is on the court. Denver has a high octane offense, a coach that loves cough drops and a passive defensive mentality. With all that, 55 wins seems achievable. However, making it to the western conference finals for the second straight year may not be. Finally, the San Antonio Spurs have retooled and look to be ready for one final run for a chip under the Tim Duncan/Gregg Popovich reign. The addition of Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess, DeJuan Blair and the return of a healthy Manu Ginobili should be enough to challenge the Lakers for the top spot in the conference.
I wish I had a paragraph about my Knicks. However, they are yet to figure out how to play defense and everyone on the team thinks he is the star. Yes, we just knocked off New Orleans for our first win of the young season, but the Hornets aren't exactly the class of the west. Chris Paul is going to give the same every night and David West and Emeka Okafor will get theirs, but that is it. I'd like to say the Knicks could win 35 games this year, but even that might be a bit of a stretch. No interior defense, too many wild three point attempts and no true court leader have made the Knicks a team opponents look forward to playing. I don't like this one bit!
Be back with more NBA in a couple days.
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